i can tell you usually these outfits will go around 8k to 10k

if want to check the price u can go Here .

As usual those evaluations are exceedingly optimistical.

This is the outcome of 4000 coupons spent there:

are 27 frags of the cloth.

Means on projection, my cloth would cost 7-8k coupons that's the highest price in the evaluation, but i've done enough draws in this event to know this one wasn't even a 'bad' outcome.

I wonder why who tries to do those evaluations always overvalue the quantity of stars dropped per 200 coupons spent.

It's just due to the RNG. That's just an overall average based on lots of pulls from different players but your own rate can easily differ. There is no set rate for all players. I picked up 41 frags for ~5900 coupons. At that rate 50 frags would be 7,100. Which is right in the middle of that predicted range. You are on pace to just over shoot the max by a few hundred, unless you run into a star hot streak. Oh and it's also based on previous cycles, not the current cycle, so rates can vary between cycles. For this cycle it seems the ninja frags have a higher % drop rate. Lots of people are completing Temari for like 10k, and I've seen way more Madara drops than in any previous offering of his.

My Edo Itachi falls within that pricing as well.

spent 5k now. gained 35 frags in total.

Means i'm in your same situation (at 6k would be 42).

Btw, yes you are right in telling rng, but the higher the number of rolls are and the closer to the average outcome you go.

So seems the expected price is 7200.

@Kuro: my fault that i wrongly read the prices you posted in the other thread. I read 5777 as the minimum, but was actually 6777. :-)