Okay it's been about 15 minutes since I made the thread, and I'm rereading it, and I realize how salty I sound. I think I may have to start improving bp, rather than ninjas.

Even me who have 150k bp have trouble getting that 5 wins sometimes but I do agree no win is just bad. Do improve your bp. Also try avoiding peak hours in your server cluster. Sometimes, luck just isnt on your side.

I lost first 4 and won 5 in a row.

xD

Yes I agree. Just spread out your matsuri time.

Start right off at 20.45 pm server time (as per your image), you're going to match lots of heavy players.

Let them crash each others.

well yea around your level you're gonna face people with much higher bp. this is why people lvl freeze. this is just a fact you have to accept about matsuri. like other people said, avoid peak times. the strong people usually get matsuri out of the way first. maybe go during 9 tails after u do decent dmg in 9tails. unless u don't want sun coins, u can't avoid matsuri.

Do your Matsuri an Hour before the event ends to be sure that the other strongest players already done with theirs .. But some of the strongest is just plain *censored* to play late and feed on weaker players .. Also, try to improve your power, 99k is a bit too low for a player with Lv99 .. nowadays, you can see a player at Lv70~80 having 99k, even 100k+ ..

I'll just comment with some observations/tips I've come to know from doing Matsuri.

I'm obviously not 100% sure on whether Matsuri is based on level or not, it's definitely not based on power as the opponents you get are too varied in power for it to be, but I don't think I've ever went against a level "70" as a level "90", so we can assume it chooses people within your level range at the very least.
What is the average power on your server compared to the average level? Its a good way to gauge if you're behind the curve or not.
I think 100k at level 99 is quite low power personally, but I'm comparing that with myself & those on my server, most people on my server around level 85-92 are about 90-100k power.
So I have 100k power & I'm level 92, I've been winning Matsuri pretty consistently since level 79 (44k bp), I'd say I win at least 2 full Matsuris out of 3- that said I do have bad weeks, I have went a week with 0 Matsuri wins, it is RNG after all.

What most people don't know is that Matsuri can be manipulated to an extent, the game attempts to feed you free wins & you can manipulate this if you have somewhat decent teams & reasonable power for your level.

Keep in mind that I've heard of hugely varying results and many factors could play into Matsuri that I can't account for, but I've always had consistent results myself.
I'll do my best to explain.

So to begin I want to address something that others have said, I always do my Matsuri as soon as it comes up, I never wait 30 minutes, or an hour, I always try and attempt it during the highest possible player count which I assume is exactly when the event starts, the reason for this is due to the sheer volume of players, match making will work better if there's a larger volume of players to work with as that's how it works, obviously I'm making the assumption that there is match making, but if there is no MM(Match Making), then you still want to do it during peak as there will always be less whales on average than there are normal players, you're trying to maximize your likely hood of going against someone you can beat & having a larger pool of players to choose from makes it easier on the MM when it comes to you getting your "Free Win", which the system does try & give you, also the assumption that all the Whales do Matsuri instantly so waiting will allow you to bypass them is based on the assumption that all whales for some strange reason do their Matsuri differently than everyone else, some wait- some don't, you still want a larger pool of players to drown out getting a whale and to reinforce your chance of getting that "Free Win".

I see no solid reasoning behind waiting to do it later, rather than doing it sooner.

- Your first fight should usually be a win, it can happen that it isn't but generally I've noticed on average it puts you with someone on your own power or lower but I've heard from others that they rarely get a win on their first fight. It has happened to me as well but generally speaking I usually get a victory here so I'll use this as a baseline, assuming that Match Making is loosely based on levels, if you aren't winning this fight consistently then we can assume you're on average lower in power than those on a similar level to you.

- This is also based on you having a reasonable team (Obviously)- generally a fight is dictated by initiative alone, assuming both teams have a reasonable line up. There are exceptions to this but they are rare, you can beat someone 20k power head of you if you have a line up that straight up counters him but we can't create accurate results with that we can with Initiative & Power. If you can confidently say you are at least ranking on average similarly to those of your own level in Power & Initiative, I see no reason why you shouldn't be winning at least 40-60% of your Matsuris.

- After you've won, it puts you against a random person, once you've lost it should "normally" put you against someone you're likely to beat(Free Win condition), this is what you can manipulate to your advantage.

- Start with your best team, end Matsuri reviving your best team- This is because of the first win rule & the free win mechanic set in place after you lose a fight, you want to guarantee that first win, then queuing for a 2nd fight should theoretically be your "Loss" fight, generally after winning this fight I guarantee I'll win Matsuri with 90% accuracy. The third fight is usually where I lose my best team & where my 2nd team will gain a win, which will then lose. This pattern leads to the reviving team getting the "Free Win" which in most cases solidifies your 5th win & if not it should be your 4th with you then fighting your 5th fight with your best team.

You playing on s9 its explains everything...

I agree with starting Matsuri sooner than later, as I've had some nasty experiences waiting for 9Tails to let stronger players go off getting that done and had to face some strong level freezers. But I want to add on a few things:

1. The matching is based on your server bracket so only viewing how your power/level balance stands in your own server is going to bring problems, you need to be looking at how you are compared to others in space-time via the "lookup group" option, although looking at your own server can give you a vague ideia.

2. "Start with your best team", this is a risk since your best team can be killed right at the start. Go with the weakest of your 3 teams and if you win great, if not you get a "free win" with the strongest and just keep the streak as long as possible, then revive the strong team to repeat. (although there are times that "free win" is blatantly ignored, such as getting a lower level the system considers as free win to you but he has higher power or a strong p2w ninja lineup Ex: AG Konan, Edo Hiruzen,etc.)

3. With the R&D making more revive chances possible the dinamics of Matsuri can change, since that means more people have their strongest team out for more battles. This is just enforcing the ideia of looking at the space-time lists to see what teams players are running, since most use their main teams as their strongest in Matsuri.

4. As you gain levels you will find that just power isn't enough in some cases, even with a solid team from treasure draws. Trying to piece some paid ninja to have around when you reach that lvl 90+, if you're not already there, is important for surviving as all the p2w in your server bracket will be there and have higher chances of being matched with you due to similar level ranges at that point.

Just my 2 cents

The game usually just matches you with whoever’s next in queue. You can test it out yourself if you want. If there’s nobody in queue and you enter a weak alt with 80k less power, you’ll still match up with it. There is a little bit of matchmaking as seen as there’s a delay before fighting against the same opponent, however most of the time it just matches you with whoever is next in queue.