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40 mil coins in 8 gates ...

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  • Registered: 2017-07-24
  • Topics: 29
  • Posts: 2271
On 2017-09-20 03:37:02Show All Posts
6#

RNG&law of large numbers.

For small sized spending, results can be EVERYWHERE.

But generally speaking, once you spend a lot of coin in it, it will equalize.

40m? 3k pt? those are all pocket change. Come back when you have 100k pts at least.

  • Registered: 2017-07-24
  • Topics: 29
  • Posts: 2271
On 2017-09-20 04:01:08Show All Posts
8#
  • S.H.I.E.L.D On 2017-09-20 03:49:06
  • Lol 3k...nah probably got more than 8k either way I already have 4 initiative runes so im good now? Cause I have 30k points right now...am I good enough lol ...just messing around the problem was that pocket change of mine should have been good enough for few gold runes but hey if u think 40mil coins arent enough for at least 1 red or 2 gold well you must have really bad luck urself.

You don't seem to understand how statistic works.

Let's theorize that each 1k pt give you a 7% chance of getting a red, so that on average every 14k pt will give you a red.

Say you are at 50k point, is it unlucky if you don't have one? Yes, yes it would be. But it's not unlikely. Because at this point, the chance of not getting one is 2.7%, a small number but given the large number of players, nothing.

Why? because standard deviation. While the "average" at 50k pt would be 3.5, the standard deviation at this point is 1.8, which is over 50% of the mean, so "0" is less than 2 standard deviation away.


On the other hand, if you are at 200k points, the mean is 14. The standard deviation is 3.6. It is a larger standard deviation, but now it is only 25% of the mean. And therefore, on average, the result will be closer to the mean in term of %, by half.


So you see, it's not a matter of whether a person usually gets or expects to get something at the low amount. It's a matter of low amount is simply unreliable data and doesn't mean anything.


And besides, 40m or 8k is slightly below average for getting a red anyway. Thou yes, on average there would be 2 gold. But as you can see from above, that's meaningless, because there is probably a >5-10% chance that one would get nothing.





This post was last edited by PraiseLuka on 2017-09-20 04:01:23.
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