it is bait, you have to know that 100% of the things (I mean rewards wheels pulls etc) are all 100% fixed, I mean we already know team instance rewards are fixed,lucky star wheel is fixed,rare ninja pull rates are fixed,gold summons have a fixed rate. so I wouldn't be surprised if this was fixed too and also 30% mood scrolls in the current event is a rebate reward which you can get by spending about 3000 ingots.