There is a reason drop chances aren't publicly known. If people knew the drop rates for some of these RNG events they wouldn't spend on them. You would think people wouldn't spend period without knowing the drop chance, but I guess not. If I had to guess it's below 0.01% chance. Could be higher, but no one outside the mod/dev team knows. I'm still curious as to how many can times people can get his frags in a day. Never seen more than one person hit the jackpot in a day in lucky wheel. I would never recommend spending ingots/coupons on these type of events unless you are going for one of the redemption items/fuku deals.