It's nerfed 100% sure I opened 60 boxes at once and only got 2 Edo Yagura just TWO but during the first two days I've gotten at least 10 edo combined with some Yamato

Idk if it was nerfed or not, but I do get less edo jin. If it was because the huge ninja pool, I seemed to get kakashi beheading sword everytime.

Maybe you are just lucky? The ninjas are still in the packs, but the drop rate is certainly lowered.

There are 18 types of ninja frags in those boxes, six of them are edo/anbu/fuguki. That means 3 out of the daily 9 boxes should drop one of these frags, which was the case the first 3 days. Now it is not.

So for example sake, let's say each of the ninjas listed have the same % drop rate

That would mean, each would have a .05% (repeating of course) to drop (Not claiming this is the guaranteed drop rate)

it wouldn't be 3 of the 9 daily boxes.

Each box has a 1 in 18 chance of dropping a fragment, for each one, this isn't *ulative.

So every box you'd have a .05% in getting any specific ninja fragment.

0.05%? Don't you mean 5%?

Ok, 5% chance to get a certain ninja, which means 30% chance to get edo/anbu/fuguki frags from each box. This would explain why somebody isn't getting good frags for 2-3 days because of RNG. But when you have multiple people experiencing the same lack of good frags over several days then the issue here is not only RNG.

Since people are still getting some frags while some aren't, it might be that the edo jins and/or anbus % are weighted less compared to the other ninjas. So if for example, people are going to assume each frag of edo roshi, itachi anbu, ao, mabui, temari five kage, and three random ninjas each have the same rate out of 100. Let's say this time all ninjas excluding itachi and roshi have a rate of 15% while edo and anbus have 5%. Edos and anbus might have different rates compared to other ninjas but they might not also have the same rates. This might be the reason why it is happening. It is the same logic for lucky packs and mission boxes but the difference is that rate of edos and anbus are drastically higher compared to a the jackpot prize in those boxes/packs. Think of it when people first started playing this game and people did not know about the 60-pull rule for a rare in most treasures, so they used this concept when pulling for a treasure.

I forgot to move the decimal. So great catch there, I always forget something in math.

But it wouldn't be 5%. It would be 5.5%

Again you it wouldn't be 30% to get the edo anbu fuguki frags from each box, it would still be 5.5% for 1 specific ninja for each box. Again assuming they all have the same % drop rate.

This is of course, until we get information about drop rates.

So just to reiterate, the first 3 days on my server 7 characters obtained on average 18 anbu/edo frags (more if you count fuguki)....In the last 7 days most of the same 7 characters obtained 2 frags (even counting fuguki) two guys got 4, one got 6, and one got zero.... You are trying to tell me that is just luck? really?

The consistency on both ends of the spectrum is just too much to chalk it up to luck. It went from 4-8 per day to 4 per week and that is being nice, really its 2.85 average on my server (seeing as you get 2 at a time it would round down, not up).... That points to lowered rates, and quite a bit lower at that. Also want to point out that this started the first 3v3 after daylight savings was implemented. Just saying.

By this math 7 characters got almost as much in the same 3 day period as they will get in 2 months... As this event is 21 days; 4 per 7 days X 3 to equal 12 per 21 days....which would be 24 frags in 2 months. Though I'm sure some weeks will be luckier than 4 frags, some will also be zero.

I will continue to gather data, but what I've gathered isn't in favor of "luck" so far....

It's barely been 2 weeks maybe not even 2 weeks.

I'd wait for a month at least before drawing any real conclusion. So I'd recommend saving a month's worth of boxes, open them 1 by 1 and write down what you got and how many, from there we can actually get some real hard data.

Yea it has been 10 days. If it was only my characters I could believe it was luck, but literally all the active people on my server noticed the same thing. As "someonerandom" said 3/9 boxes daily (1 in 3) was not an exaggeration for the first 3 days...down to like 1/27 boxes from the 4th day onward and that is IF you are lucky enough to get a draw every 3 days (I personally have not been even close to that lucky, 1/63 for me though I'm sure that will improve slightly...maybe)....Luck is chance, if everyone gets the same result with VERY slight variance, that is a standard, not chance. The slight variance of plus or minus X frags from the standard becomes the chance. I know it takes more than 3 days to create a standard, but it was very consistent for 3 days and then it changed drastically. If the rates did get lowered, then all we got was 3 days to set that prenerf standard, like it or not.

Thus far I haven't seen anything (other than pure speculation) that suggests otherwise by the way. Just look at the guy screen shotting each day at the bottom of the first page....That is almost exactly what I've seen rarity wise. Looking forward to his completed 21 day shot even though it is already visible in that pic. Obvious even...

As I said, I will continue to pay attention in hopes that I will see what i saw the first 3 days again...However I won't be holding my breath as the odds of that happening one way or another are astronomical. Which is why the consistency of the first 3 days for not one, but 7 characters ,on my server alone, stands out so much. Further testimony from players here aside.

I don't really care about what the exact rates are, or even that they were likely lowered. They are running a business here after all, so I can understand that. More or less just don't like that if there was a change, it was done under the pretense of something else as an unmentioned "fix" if you will....