From what I've observed from playing for roughly year so far now, is that it's roughly a year for around 1300 - 1500~ or so not including free draws & taking advantage of the Rebate by saving 300 Seal Scrolls, Edo Hashirama is anywhere between 2500-3000 pulls.
So 2-2.5 years of playing just to pull the Ninja, assuming you save your coupons you should be able to ac*ulate enough through out those year to buy both Tobirama & Hiruzen, it's possible- you would just need to be insanely dedicated for a very long time lol.
It's why a lot of people will call a lot of random things "Free to play", technically the only thing gated in this game is Ninja Medals.
Your observations are pretty accurate according to my personal experience. Technically, it is possible to do a 300 pull every 2 months completely f2p (if you save up ALL of your cps for Great Plates) and Edo Hashi is indeed around 2500-3000 pulls. I'm currently at around 1600 pulls (including free ones) and sitting at 47 frags.
Ofc, if you gonna whale 500 seal scrolls every month for those 2 extra frags you can be done in like 5-6 months, but then again, I wouldn't consider Edo Hashirama an F2P ninja by any stretch of the imagination :D
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