Hi!
I have heard theories about this as well, but regardless of which fragment you get, the chance to obtain either Madara or Kurama Naruto is still 50%. So you do not have to worry =p It is still random.
~Jib
At 50%, my server has 5 first Madara pulls statistically making that a 3.125% chance of this 5 straight Madara pull occurance.
From observing fellow players within my same Space cluster, Madara seems to be the more common pull
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