Rare are sure at 60-70 draws. Every 10 pull you get only commons. Many people gets fuguki or inoici as first draw because is common and because they don't own them (if you hit the counters you always get ninjas you don't own, this goes also for commons, you can get early dupes only out of lucky rolls. In the case of draw by 10 this mean to pull one in your draw 1-9. You don't get a common dupe, if possible, only if the first 9 rolls weren't lucky).