I mean it's simple, what you get in a treasure in terms of Rare or Super Rare is based on how many draws you've done in that treasure previously, if you've used like 900+ scrolls in Kage and then do a free draw in Kage, then yeah you're probably going to free draw Ay/Sasuke, it's just the way of things.

Since Tendo/Hashi are 400. If you used 399 scrolls in Tendo treasure and then do a free draw a couple days later, then technically you'll be getting either Hashi or Tendo as a free draw, it's not really that surprising is it?

So it's why i never really understand the excitement of free drawing someone because usually you had to use scrolls to get 99% of the way there. (Unless it's a case of doing 60 free draws and getting a banner Ninja you've been wanting, that's always nice)

I know they say there's always a small chance but after an entire year of playing the game and watching the community, I've pretty much never seen anyone pull a Super Rare before the expected draw point, it "might" be possible but the odds are so low that you may as well pretend it isn't possible.