Does anyone know the probability distribution of Equipment refining? We all know that the probability of refining is the lowest at 0 wish credits and increase with more wish credits until you reach N-1 wish credits with a probability of 1, but how exactly does the probability increase?

There are literally infinite ways this could happen, but there some simple ways they might do this.

1. P(W;N) = ( W +1) / N, this is a simple linear distribution

2. P(W;N)= 1/(N-W), this is a rational reciprocal distribution

3. They could use a distribution with infinite domain like a geometric or a constant force and just make P(W;N) =1 when N=W+1.

Geometric, P(W;N,q) = (1-q)^(W-1)*q, except when N=W+1

Constant Force, P(W;N,m)=1- Exp(-m*w), except when N=W+1

I really wish that the devs would come and say what distribution they use, because it it's very difficult to test any of these models.