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- Registered: 2017-07-24
- Topics: 5
- Posts: 59
- Armand_ On 2017-05-16 23:46:21
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I think the problem is understanding how probability and rng works.
The mathematical forumla that gives you the probability of getting a random event with a fixed probability x after n chances is:
1-(x^n)
For arguments sake lets say that hashirama has a 1% chance of appearing in a pack. After 100 packs, the probability of getting it is only of 63.4%, after 200 packs its 86.6% and only at 300 packs it goes over 95% which is practically guaranteed.
Noe on my server there are a little under 15 active players (tops, server 407 uk needs a merge =P). Lets say each of them opens 10 packs each day for the duration of the event. Lets say that around 7 packs are opened each day (some dont play every day). A total of 735 packs have been opened during the event without a single hashirama appearing, thus the real probability of getting hashirama is lower than 1% in game (probably closer to 0.1%).
Under this conditions you need to open 3000 packs to have over 95% chance of getting hashirama.
The event is not rigged, its just very very rare to get one, we know this. Of course it is possible, albeit improbable to get hashirama twice in a server on the same day.
It would be so much better if Tencent or Oasis (dont know who has the authority to do it) made gave us the odds of drawing this and that from rng based events. In China a law passed demanding inline games to do this (Tencent published rng rates for lol). Until we get them, we will always feel as though we might be getting ripped off, specially with the bad publicity that Oasis has been getting lately (not totally undeserved).
That math is pretty awesome man. Anyway, about the Chinese law, I hope Oasis does take that into account very soon because that is such a huge part of the players concern.
Back when we heard about Tobirama only being given out once per day (It was in a different event than the mission box), players haven't trusted Oasis since then. Then with all that Utopia nonsense, it isn't earning them much favor.
Of course, that is only a portion of the community but they represent a wide enough margin to warrant attention. Myself, I only spend on things I know I can get for certain and I haven't been cheated yet.
If I knew the exact odds of these boxes and other events I would definitely consider attempting them. -
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