I interpreted what he meant as his onoki only hitting 4 of his 12 standard attacks, making that 1/3 his probability of hitting his target, and 2/3 his backache triggering. There is the video below the post, didn't count the hits but it doesn't seem like the standards were hitting very often.

Can't prove you wrong, but if only 4 of the 12 hits connected, it would most likely suggest the failure rate is higher. Maybe he is getting older after all.